Denton, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

197
FXUS64 KFWD 041057
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
557 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the region today.
  Severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening mainly
  across our far eastern counties.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across all of
  North and Central Texas tonight into Saturday. Heavy rainfall
  will be the main threat.

-Much cooler temperatures will arrive Saturday night and prevail
 through early next week. A few locations may dip just below
 freezing west of I-35/I-35W both Saturday night and Sunday night.


&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No major changes are needed to the short term forecast other than
to adjust PoPs based on latest radar trends. Strong low and mid
level forcing for ascent will continue to spread across the region
into the afternoon and we`ve recently seen an uptick in showers
along the I-35 corridor. The warm front is still draped across our
far southeastern counties this morning and will likely lift north
and east through the day putting our eastern most row of counties
within the warm sector by early afternoon. As showers and
thunderstorms increase in coverage through the afternoon, the
severe weather threat will generally be confined to areas east of
I-35. On the cool side of the front, extensive low clouds, fog and
drizzle will be persistent between rounds of showers and a few
storms. A lull in the precipitation is expected this evening
before widespread showers and storms develop late tonight and move
across the region. While there will be some potential for elevated
hail storms with the initial activity late tonight, heavy rainfall
will generally be the main threat.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Early Friday Morning through Saturday/

Latest water vapor imagery shows a large upper trough spinning
across the Desert Southwest early this morning with a lead
shortwave ejecting out of northwest Mexico and into West Texas.
Regional radar imagery shows a huge blossoming of convection
across southwest Texas spreading into the Big Country. All of this
activity is elevated and will pose mainly a large hail threat. As
strong forcing for ascent spreads into our western counties, we
expect to see scattered showers and thunderstorms rapidly
increase in coverage mainly west of I-35 through the early morning
hours, then a gradual decrease in coverage with eastward extent
as this first wave of ascent pulls off to the northeast.

Meanwhile a surface frontal boundary is draped across our far
southeast counties where lower 70s dewpoints are starting to creep
into parts of Leon and Anderson counties. This boundary separates
a potentially volatile airmass from a cooler more stable airmass
to the north, and will be the primary concern through the
afternoon hours as deep convection is expected to develop later in
the day. As the upper trough over the Southwest U.S. moves eastward
later today, strong forcing for ascent will overspread North
Texas. A weak surface low will develop and spread out of the Hill
Country into the Arklatex through the late afternoon hours. As it
does, our warm front will spread northward along with a strongly
unstable airmass featuring >3500 J/kg of MLCAPE and strong deep
layer shear. There does appear to be a window during the late
afternoon and early evening where our far eastern counties could
see vigorous convection develop and race northward near this
frontal boundary. This is most likely to occur anywhere from
Fairfield/Palestine northward to Athens/Canton/Sulphur Springs and
possibly as far north as Paris between 2 pm and 6 pm. Forecast
soundings are thermodynamically impressive and supportive of all
modes of severe weather including very large hail and intense wind
gusts. There is a threat for tornadoes as well, but forecast
hodographs are quite a bit more elongated in our area thanks to
deep southerly flow. Low level flow becomes more backed across
East Texas and across southwest Arkansas later in the evening
suggesting that the greatest tornado potential will likely be east
of our area. Nonetheless there is a significant severe potential
at least across our far eastern counties late this afternoon into
the evening. Farther to the west on the cooler side of the
boundary, ample MUCAPE will also continue to support a more
isolated severe threat with large hail being the main threat this
afternoon. This threat will generally extend back to about I-35
with PoPs tapering off pretty quickly back to the west this
evening.

As the upper trough finally ejects eastward late Friday night
into Saturday, widespread showers and elevated thunderstorms will
overspread all of Central and North Texas. Initially, steep mid
level lapse rates will support isolated severe elevated
thunderstorms with a large hail threat spreading out of Central TX
into our southwest counties, but a gradual deep moistening of the
atmospheric column will allow this activity to transition into
mainly a heavy rain threat. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches will be possible over the next 48 hours for most locations
with the heaviest totals of 3 to 6 inches occurring across our
northeast counties through Saturday. Rain chances will taper off
around late Saturday morning with additional wrap around
precipitation expected into Saturday night. Severe weather is not
expected during this time.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 256 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025/
/Saturday Night and Beyond/

Scattered rain showers will linger into Saturday night along and
north of I-20 as the core of our upper low/trough finally shifts
over North Texas. As the main trough axis begins its exit to the
east, breezy south flow behind this system will bring a couple
abnormally-cool, early April days to North and Central Texas.
Several rural locations west of I-35/I-35W may dip below freezing
(20-30% chance for temperatures below 30 degrees) both early
Sunday morning and early Monday morning, so it may be a good idea
to cover or bring in any sensitive plants you may want to keep
around. Temperatures will remain in the 50s across much of North
and Central Texas during the day Sunday (around 20-25 degrees
below normal for this time of year!) with a few locations along
the Red River potentially struggling to make it out of the 40s.
Very light north winds will keep any additional cold air
advection at bay by Monday and with sunny skies prevailing,
expect temperatures to rise into the low to mid 60s by Monday
afternoon.

The true warm-up will begin Tuesday as mid-level ridging develops
overhead and south flow returns. Expect temperatures inching into
the upper 70s and low 80s by Wednesday. No significant weather
concerns or discernible rain chances are expected through the
remainder of the next work week.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Widespread IFR cigs/vis are expected to persist through much of
the valid TAF period along with increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Radar imagery shows an extensive area of light to
moderate showers developing along the I-35 corridor and these will
intermittently impact airports through the morning. Stronger
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and should
mainly stay to the east of the major airports, but widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight. IFR conditions are
likely to prevail through much of Saturday as well with north
winds increasing to 15 to 20 kt.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested this afternoon and evening
east of I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  52  58  40  54 /  90 100  90  50   5
Waco                73  55  61  41  53 /  80 100  80  10   0
Paris               76  53  58  41  51 / 100 100 100  60  10
Denton              62  48  57  36  54 /  80 100  90  60   5
McKinney            66  51  58  40  53 /  90 100  90  50   5
Dallas              66  52  59  41  54 /  90 100  90  40   5
Terrell             73  53  61  42  54 /  90 100 100  30   5
Corsicana           77  57  64  44  55 /  90 100  90  20   5
Temple              75  56  66  41  57 /  70 100  70  10   0
Mineral Wells       61  49  58  36  57 /  80 100  80  60   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TXZ094-095-105>107-123.

&&

$$