Denton, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

739
FXUS64 KFWD 211150
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
550 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler weather is expected through the end of the week.

- Above normal temperatures return this weekend with dry weather
  expected.

- Our next chance of rain arrives next Wednesday, but it`s too
  soon to know specific details about Thanksgiving Day itself.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Some adjustments were made to the forecast through the next few
hours to account for the latest weather observations. A few
isolated spots have dipped to/below freezing as of 5 AM. This will
likely be short-lived as temperatures begin to rise after sunrise.

The rest of the forecast remains largely unchanged. Another weak
front will move in this evening, prolonging the cooler
temperatures through tomorrow.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Through Friday Afternoon/

Surface high pressure has settled across the Texas Hill Country
leading to calm winds and clear skies. This should lead to
continued efficient radiational cooling with early morning
temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Areas that are typically
cooler such as valleys or low spots may temporarily drop into the
lower 30s, however, most locations should remain above freezing.

Given the dry air atop our region and westerly to southwesterly
winds in place, temperatures tomorrow will range between the mid
60s along the Red River to lower 70s in Central Texas.

A backdoor cold front will arrive late this afternoon, returning
northerly winds to all of North and Central Texas. This front will
ensure that the northeastern counties experience overnight
temperatures in the mid 30s once again. The rest of the region is
likely to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s tonight.

Similar to today, tomorrow will once again feature temperatures
in the lower 60s along the Red River and lower 70s across Central
Texas. Winds will return out of the south by the afternoon with
clear skies continuing.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 330 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024/
/Friday Night Through Mid Next Week/

After a few days of below to near seasonal temperatures, a
warming trend will take place over the weekend. Daytime highs
will easily reach the upper 70s to low 80s by Sunday. Dry weather
will also continue, but another system is forecast to arrive
early next week. Not only this will this bring cooler weather,
but also bring low rain chances for portions of the region during
the mid-late week period.

The forecast for the weekend remains on track with a weakening
ridge/zonal flow aloft and a surface high pressure to our east.
Southerly winds will become established Friday night into
Saturday, with breezy conditions on Sunday. With that in mind, it
will be a good idea to secure any outdoor decorations given the
wind gusts could reach 25-30 mph during the day.

The next cold front is expected to arrive on Monday, bringing us
back to more seasonal temperatures. Daytime highs on Tuesday are
forecast to stay in the 60s across North TX and upper 60s to low
70s in Central TX. This front will be dry, but rain chances are
still looking to return on Wednesday for some of our eastern
counties. A little over half of the guidance is showing a large
scale trough over the central U.S during the mid-late week period
along with a another strong cold front moving south. While this
could represent cooler weather on Thanksgiving Day, uncertainty
remains high on the potential for rain in some locations. The
good news is that this scenario also keeps the most widespread
activity to our east. Keep checking back for updates!

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Calm to very light northwesterly winds are ongoing across much of
the region this early Thursday morning. As the sun rises, expect
winds to remain below 5 knots through the early afternoon hours.
Slight wind variations are expected beyond 20Z as winds speeds
pick up to between 8-10 knots at all TAF sites.

A weak front will be arriving this evening, leading to a northerly
wind direction beyond 03Z Friday. This will mainly impact the
North Texas TAF sites as the front will likely have a hard time
reaching KACT. Winds at KACT are more likely to remain out of the
northwest below 8 knots.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  43  64  45  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                71  39  69  41  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               64  37  61  37  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              67  36  64  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            67  37  63  40  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              68  42  65  44  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             68  38  64  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           70  41  66  43  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              73  39  71  42  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       69  37  69  40  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$