Denton, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

182
FXUS64 KFWD 282328
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
528 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have returned and
  will linger through early Sunday. A few strong storms with hail
  are also possible over Central Texas Saturday afternoon.

- A strong cold front will move through North Central Texas late
  Saturday into early Sunday. In its wake, the coldest
  temperatures of the season will arrive and persist through
  Tuesday. Wind chills on Sunday morning will drop into the mid
  teens to mid 20s.

- Some light rain will return Monday into Monday night. The
  potential for any light sleet or freezing rain is now minimal
  over the northern counties Monday morning. No impacts are
  expected, though a brief window may exist near the Red River,
  when a low probability of precipitation coincides with
  temperatures in the lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 131 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The temperatures being experienced across North and Central Texas
today through Saturday will be the mildest we see for the next
several days. Our strong cold front and significant cool off is
still on track to commence late tomorrow afternoon.

A fast, low-amplitude mid-level disturbance will exit the Central
Rockies later tonight. Already, forcing for ascent well ahead of
this feature is resulting in the development of a few high based
showers over western North Texas. The lowest several thousand feet
of the atmosphere, however, are quite dry, and this is inhibiting
any rain from reaching the surface. By late afternoon, and
continuing through the overnight hours, coverage and intensity of
this precipitation will pick up, and we`ll start to see light
rain accumulations across most of the area after midnight.

Some meager (~400-500 Jkg-1) amounts of elevated CAPE will likely
exist in the 06z-12z time period, and it`s not out of the
question some isolated elevated thunderstorms may also form after
midnight. Any strong or certainly marginally severe storms would
be quite a stretch, however, given the limited instability, and
thus am not concerned about any hazards other than lightning
overnight tonight.

The shield of precipitation should shift into eastern North Texas
during the morning hours Saturday, as the upper level
disturbance pushes into the lower Mississippi Valley. Subsidence
on the backside of the disturbance will foster some breaks in the
cloud cover by afternoon, allowing the sun to peek through at
times. A fair amount of lingering moisture will exist over the
region, however, and this may yield some continued sprinkles
along and east of I-35 during the afternoon.

The long advertised cold front will sweep southward across the Red
River by early afternoon Saturday, driving through the Metroplex
toward sunset, and clearing the entire forecast area late
Saturday evening. Strong gusty north winds behind the front will
usher in much colder air, with temperatures sliding out of the 60s
and through the 50s across the northern counties by late
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 131 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The aforementioned cold front will plunge southward through the
forecast area during the evening hours, with a modified polar
airmass surging rapidly into the region in its wake. With gusty
north winds, wind chill values will drop through the 30s into the
20s areawide through the overnight hours. Lows in the
northernmost counties will dip into the upper 20s by daybreak
Sunday, with 30s elsewhere.

Short range model solutions suggest enough lift may accompany
this front to facilitate a narrow axis of convection along and
just ahead of this boundary as it pushes through the I-20
corridor around sunset Saturday. The NBM and associated ensembles
advertise some fairly healthy PoPS across our east central and
southeast counties by Saturday evening. Not entirely sold on this
coverage, but chose to follow it for this package. Assuming this
activity materializes, we`ll see a combination of showers and
thunderstorms across this region. Enough deep layer CAPE appears
to exist to create a potential for some marginally severe
thunderstorms over our southeast zones by early evening. Hail
would be the primary threat if this activity does develop.

With the polar airmass in place, Sunday will be quite chilly by
late November standards. Highs regionwide in the 40s will
represent values that are as much as 15-20 degrees below normal.
Sunny skies will materialize mainly north of I-20, though clouds
may hang tough most of the day across the Central Texas zones. A
persistent north wind will add an edge for those outside.

A cloudy, cold day will usher in the first day of December. Highs
on Monday will once again struggle to reach the 40s by afternoon.
Another trough will amplify over the Western U.S. late Sunday
night, and shoot eastward through the Plains states by Monday.
The forcing for ascent associated with this feature will interact
with the shallow layer of moisture overriding the cold airmass
near the surface, promoting another round of light rain across
much of the area Monday afternoon and evening. Coverage will not
be overly widespread or heavy, and confidence is high that this
precipitation will exit the region prior to the time when surface
temperatures dip toward the freezing mark. At this time, no winter
impacts are expected across North Texas with this system.

The rest of the week will feature slowly moderating temperatures,
though daytime values will remain below normal for early December
all the way through Thursday. Another storm system will approach
the region from the southwest toward the end of the week,
resulting in a renewed chance of rain Thursday, mainly across our
Central Texas counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Isolated showers and storms are increasing in coverage west of
D10 as of 23z in response to incoming ascent and deepening
moisture. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible
near the D10 airports mainly from 02-06z this evening, with
perhaps some very intermittent light rain continuing overnight
into early Saturday morning. Cigs will progressively lower from
VFR to MVFR overnight, and may even dip to IFR after ~14z Saturday
morning before lifting/scattering later in the afternoon. A
strong cold front will sweep through Metroplex airports around 22z
tomorrow, and this boundary may be accompanied by a thin band of
convection. A brief VCTS will be advertised to account for very
short-lived thunderstorm impacts along this boundary, which will
be immediately followed by an abrupt NW wind shift with gusts near
or exceeding 30 kts after 00z. The frontal passage will not occur
at Waco until just beyond the valid TAF period, but similar cig
trends can be expected there during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    51  69  32  45 /  80  60  20   0
Waco                53  73  36  46 /  70  60  30   0
Paris               45  61  29  44 /  80  80  30   0
Denton              48  69  27  44 /  70  50  10   0
McKinney            48  66  30  45 /  80  70  20   0
Dallas              50  70  33  45 /  80  60  20   0
Terrell             48  67  32  45 /  80  70  40   0
Corsicana           53  70  36  47 /  70  70  50   0
Temple              55  74  36  47 /  60  50  30   0
Mineral Wells       50  75  29  48 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bradshaw
LONG TERM....Bradshaw
AVIATION...Stalley